Every 11 minutes, a single falls in love?

The dating platform parship.de claims that there is a single falling in love every 11 minutes. That is obviously a bullshit statistic. One single? How about two? How do you define “falling in love”? 11 minutes of being online or 11 minutes of time passing?

But let’s assume that actually two designated people find each other and immediately leave the platform. There are about 5.4 million user in Germany on parship.de. Assume for simplicity that 50% of users are female and 50% of users are male and all users are heterosexual.

Let’s say you are male and waiting to leave the platform due to you being part of the couple that found each other.

After 11 minutes the first couple leaves the platform The chances of you being matched (assuming randomness) are 1 in 2,700,000. So with a chance of 1-1/2700000 = 99.99996..% you are still on the platform. Another 11 minutes pass and your chances of being matched are 1 in 2,699,999 since there is one male gone. So the chances of you not having left the platform are “not leaving in the first 11 minutes” * “not leaving in the second 11 minutes” = (1-1/2700000)*(1-1/279999).

This game continues until 11*2700000 minutes have passed and you definitely have been matched. The probability of you still being single after a certain time is displayed in the graph below.

TLDR: That’s a dumb statistic.

Leave a Reply